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Gold fell below $4,200 per ounce for the first time since August 5

· Коммерсантъ

The price of gold futures on the Comex exchange fell below $4,250 per troy ounce for the first time since August 5. This is according to data from the trading platform.

As of 4:12 a.m. Moscow time, the price of the precious metal had fallen 1.74% to $4,246 per ounce. By 4:20 a.m. Moscow time, the futures contract had slowed its decline and was trading at $4,251, down 1.61%.

Pressure on the precious metal is coming from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish stance—signals of an interest rate hike. Since its January peak of $5,318 per ounce, gold has lost more than 20% of its value.

Signals of rate hikes are shifting the yield spread between gold and dollar-denominated assets. Gold does not generate interest income, so as real bond yields rise, it loses out to bonds: investors are reallocating capital into bonds and other dollar-denominated instruments, putting the metal under pressure. Previously, the market had priced in only the likelihood of one or more rate cuts; now, however, market participants are factoring into their models the possibility of dollar-denominated rate hikes by the end of the year—that is, tighter monetary conditions than expected.

The first half of 2013 serves as a historical benchmark for such dynamics: at that time, against the backdrop of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s plans to begin winding down its monetary stimulus program, investors massively reduced their holdings of gold. Gold ETF holdings fell by 631.5 metric tons over six months, to 1,934.5 metric tons, while the price of gold itself dropped by 26%, to $1,233 per ounce. That episode demonstrates that the reaction to a rate reversal may be precisely a flight of investors from the asset, rather than merely a fluctuation in the spot price.