Today's E-Edition Sunday, 13 September 2026

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Rates Outlook: The Heat Ratchets Higher

WASHINGTON — Citing a brighter economic outlook, the Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate Wednesday but maintained its forecast for a total of three hikes this year amid still-modest inflation.

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Bond Market’s Verdict on Washington Is Turning Harsher

If the Supreme Court rules President Donald Trump's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs are illegal, U.S. companies would not only be in line to receive tariff refunds, but also billions of dolla…

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Bessent Brings a Pea Shooter to a Trillion-Dollar Bond Market

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's plan to suppress long-term borrowing costs through larger-scale Treasury buybacks is facing an unforgiving test from the market. The Treasury Department announced Wednesday it wou…

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Bond Market Rejects Bessent’s Buyback and Sends Yields Higher

TL;DR: The US 10-year Treasury yield broke above 4.81% to a three-year high near 4.85%, yet the Dollar Index is sitting near support instead of rallying — a divergence that suggests markets increasingly care about wheth…

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The Long Bond March Is Rewriting the Old Market Playbook

The post-crisis era trained markets to treat exceptionally low bond yields as normal and anything approaching 5% as a threat. History suggests the opposite. The US 10 year yield may be higher than at almost any point in…

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Historically Tight Credit Spreads Face a Test as Rates Rise

At the turn of the year 2025-26, economic growth surprised on the upside while financial market sentiment remained strong despite high uncertainty. The war in the Middle East is now putting this resilience to the test. …

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Rates Outlook: A Short Sigh of Relief

The prospect of a peace agreement between the United States andIran is fueling optimism across global financial and commodity markets. At the center of attention is the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important…

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Rates Outlook: So How Bad Could This Whole Thing Get?

At the end of one chaotic year and the threshold of another that could be equally turbulent, Hawaiʻi’s people, institutions and economy remain fairly resilient, though vulnerable to developments beyond its borders. The …

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Bond Yields Rocket to 2-Decade High as Global Selloff Deepens

Global stocks came under renewed pressure on Tuesday, with technology shares bearing the brunt of selling as investors braced for a more aggressive Federal Reserve stance on inflation, even as oil prices continued their…

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Rates Outlook: Curve influencers

Sam Azzarello: What's next for markets and the global economy after a year defined by escalating tariffs, persistent geopolitical tensions, and the rise of artificial intelligence across industries?

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Warsh Guides Forward Without Forward Guidance

Editor's Note: At 10 PM Beijing time on August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, marking his first address at this prominent annual gathering sin…

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10-Year Treasury Yield Eyes 5% as Rate Hike Risk Builds

This is going to be a fairly important week for markets, given the amount of economic data coming and where rates closed. On Friday, the two-year moved up by almost 13 basis points and the ten-year by nearly six, follow…

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Foreign Bonds Take the Lead Over US Fixed Income in 2026

This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced…

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Hawkish ECB Not Helping French Government Bonds

As eurozone inflation plunges citizens into a cost-of-living crisis, the ECB is sticking to its policy of cheap credit and adding a new bad-debt incentive for reckless governments.

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Rates Outlook: Why 4.75% Is a Natural Fit for the 10-Year Yield

The 10Y gilt yield hit new highs on the back of inflation and political risks, but investors should not ignore the role of the Bank of England’s QT in this. We estimate the 2s10s GBP curve steepened by 60bp more than th…

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A Mixed Year for Bonds Ahead of Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech

The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, scheduled for August 27-29, represents one of the most closely watched central banking events of the year. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynot…

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Rates Outlook: An Uneasy Calm

The Federal Reserve's interest rate lift-off in December did little to disturb the uneasy calm that had reigned in financial markets in late 2015. But the new year had a turbulent start, featuring one of the worst stock…