Apprehensive market structureThe closing daily structure in the S&P 500 represents apprehension. There is a high degree of uncertainty about what will come out of the US Iran talks this weekend. The bias is for move to the upside but this is one of those structures that can easily go up or down based on the outcome of that meeting.
ES UpdateI figured a melt up, but it may wind up being a 3 drive pattern with the final pump coming if Iran agrees to a deal. Obviously if they don't, it's headed the other way. Probably just a whipsaw sideways market next week. You know they'll wait until the last hour to make a deal. I may just sit out next week.
MESM Forecast 04/10: Strong CPI reaction, but 6850 retestMESM analysis for Friday, April 10 MESM spiked higher after the March 2026 CPI release, which came out today at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported headline CPI up 3.3% year over year for March. On the 4H chart, price is still trading inside an overhead supply area, so even though the move was strong, I still want to stay cautious. The main upside level I’m watching is 6900. If price can close above that on the 4H, then that would be stronger confirmation for the bulls. On the downside, 6850 is the key decision level for me. If price starts closing below 6850, then I’ll be watching for weakness and a move back down toward 6780. On the 15M chart, there is also an order block in the green highlighted zone below price, so I think a pullback into that area is possible before the next directional move. Key levels 6900 = bullish confirmation 6850 = key support / decision level 6780 = downside target Green zone = pullback reaction area As always, I’m waiting for confirmation before taking any setup. Not financial advice. No confirmation, no trade. CME_MINI:MESM2026
ES Futures Daily Analysis | CPI Day | April 10Around 10:00 AM Thursday, 25,000 SPX 0DTE 6,830 calls hit the wire. Gamma on those contracts exploded as price rallied into the strike, and dealers scrambled to buy every dip just to keep up with the hedging demand. Hedging flow surged to +$6.3B, 24% past the 30-day maximum, the most aggressive positive reading in a month. ES climbed 75 points from its session low. The ceasefire headline gave traders the excuse. The 0DTE flow gave them the vehicle. But a VIX collapse from 26 to 21 in a single session tells you this move was built on vol compression, not a fundamental re-rating. Vol-driven rallies need constant fuel to sustain, and tomorrow's CPI print at 8:30 ET is the kind of event that either provides it or rips it away. SPX 6,800 now sits as max fair value with $10B of call selling concentrated there. Institutions spent Thursday loading the other side. QQQ saw 185K contracts bought to open at the 582 put strike. VIX call spreads at 22/25/34 May went on in size. HYG put spreads layered across April, May, and June maturities. Index ETF delta closed at -$20.8B, sitting in the 95th percentile of bearish readings. The surface says risk-on. The positioning underneath says insurance. The ceasefire itself is already cracking. Iran flagged a violation before Thursday's open. Trump confirmed arms will remain in place. Oil bounced back to $99 from the prior session's $94 low. IDF strikes continued in Lebanon, drones hit Kuwait, and Iran's parliament speaker warned time is running out. The easy money from the ceasefire headline was made Wednesday. Thursday's data reinforced the softening picture. GDP revised down to 0.5% from 0.7%. Personal income dropped 0.1% against expectations of +0.3%. Jobless claims ticked up to 219K. Core PCE held at 3.0% YoY, offering the Fed zero relief on inflation. Tomorrow's CPI estimates set a high bar: Core YoY at 2.7% versus 2.5% prior, headline at 3.4% versus 2.4%, and MoM at 0.9% versus 0.3%. On the 4H chart, the bullish break of structure at 6,848 is confirmed and price extended to the 2.0 Fibonacci level. Oscillators sit at 84.80. SPX reclaimed the 50-Day MA at 6,757 and landed right on the 100-Day at 6,802. Gamma is positive at $758M notional, and price trades above both the volatility conditions boundary (ES 6,741) and the dealer hedging flip level (ES 6,733). The environment dampens moves and supports dips at current prices. Stability at 30% leaves room for a sizable move. But below the surface, a negative gamma state to the downside means any sustained break lower gets amplified, not absorbed. A 99th percentile market-maker strike concentration at 6,740 SPX marks the last structural defense before selling accelerates. News & Sentiment: CPI is the dominant catalyst. BLK reports at 6:00 pre-market. Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 (est 51.5 vs 53.3, deteriorating confidence). Bank earnings start Monday with GS, then JPM/WFC/C on Tuesday. US-Iran negotiations run all day Friday. Russian special envoy Dmitriev is in DC ahead of the April 11 sanctions relief expiry. Trump-Xi follow-up discussions continue with Greer meeting Chinese officials. Thursday's MOC imbalance printed +$555M S&P and +$845M Nasdaq. Forecast: - Overnight: Flat to muted. Traders waiting for CPI. Range likely 6,840-6,870. - Morning Session: Quiet until 8:30 ET. BLK earnings unlikely to move the index. - CPI Reaction (8:30 ET): Expect 30-50 point move. The elevated estimates set a high bar for a dovish surprise. - Afternoon: CPI sets the direction. Hot means sustained selling. Cool means squeeze higher. - Daily Close: Hot CPI scenario 6,780-6,810. Cool CPI scenario 6,870-6,920. - Expected Range: 6,770 to 6,920 - Most Likely Path: Pre-market quiet, CPI spike at 8:30, 15-30 min of volatility, then directional trend. The bearish institutional positioning under the surface suggests the path of least resistance is lower on a hot print, but a soft number could trigger a violent short squeeze given how hedged everyone is. Friday Events: - 06:00 ET: BLK earnings (EPS $12.36, Rev $6.6B) - 08:30 ET: CPI YoY (est 3.4%), Core CPI YoY (est 2.7%), CPI MoM (est 0.9%), Core CPI MoM (est 0.3%) - 10:00 ET: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim (est 51.5) - 10:00 ET: Factory Orders MoM (est -0.2%) - All Day: US-Iran Negotiations Resistance: - 6,876: Thursday's session high and top of the 0DTE gamma range - 6,892-6,898: Gamma combo zone (two high-confidence combo strikes concentrated here) - 6,941: Call Wall, major gamma ceiling where dealers sell into rallies - 6,956: Statistical resistance from computed pivot extension - 7,041: Absolute gamma strike, unlikely on CPI day but upper boundary Support: - 6,844-6,848: 4H break of structure level + gamma combo support, the critical hold for bulls - 6,820-6,825: Delta decay target zone and key intraday pivot from Thursday - 6,800-6,802: 100-Day MA zone (SPX 6,802), the line in the sand for this rally - 6,741: Volatility conditions boundary, below here moves amplify and selling accelerates - 6,733: Dealer hedging flip level, break below triggers cascade risk toward 6,700 How I'm seeing it: Tomorrow is all about the 8:30 CPI print. I'm keeping both setups ready and letting the data decide the direction. - Hot CPI (Core at or above 2.7%): Today's 0DTE-driven rally starts to unwind. Institutional hedges activate. The bearish options positioning under the surface takes the driver's seat. First target 6,820, then 6,800 if sellers stay aggressive. - Cool CPI (Core < 2.6%): This is the pain trade. Institutions are heavily short and hedged. A soft print forces put unwinds and dealer buying into a market already at highs. The squeeze toward 6,900-6,941 would be violent. - In-line CPI (Core 2.6-2.7%): Initial vol spike, then range-bound. 6,830-6,870 consolidation. - Key thing to watch: After the initial CPI move settles (15-30 min), watch real-time hedging flow. If it turns decisively negative on hot CPI, that confirms the short thesis. If it stays positive or flat on hot CPI, the sell-off may be contained. - Primary Setup: Short from 6,855-6,876, stop 6,895, T1 6,820, T2 6,773 (conditional on hot CPI + negative hedging flow after 8:45 ET) - Alternative: Long from 6,830-6,845, stop 6,810, T1 6,876, T2 6,920 (conditional on cool CPI + positive hedging flow) The last time positioning looked like this, the bounce lasted one session. Good Luck !!!
ES Futures Daily Analysis | CPI Day | April 10 (Corrected)Around 10:00 AM Thursday, 25,000 SPX 0DTE 6,830 calls hit the wire. Gamma on those contracts exploded as price rallied into the strike, and dealers scrambled to buy every dip just to keep up with the hedging demand. Hedging flow surged to +$6.3B, 24% past the 30-day maximum, the most aggressive positive reading in a month. ES climbed 75 points from its session low. The ceasefire headline gave traders the excuse. The 0DTE flow gave them the vehicle. But a VIX collapse from 26 to 21 in a single session tells you this move was built on vol compression, not a fundamental re-rating. Vol-driven rallies need constant fuel to sustain, and tomorrow's CPI print at 8:30 ET is the kind of event that either provides it or rips it away. SPX 6,800 now sits as max fair value with $10B of call selling concentrated there. Institutions spent Thursday loading the other side. QQQ saw 185K contracts bought to open at the 582 put strike. VIX call spreads at 22/25/34 May went on in size. HYG put spreads layered across April, May, and June maturities. Index ETF delta closed at -$20.8B, sitting in the 95th percentile of bearish readings. The surface says risk-on. The positioning underneath says insurance. The ceasefire itself is already cracking. Iran flagged a violation before Thursday's open. Trump confirmed arms will remain in place. Oil bounced back to $99 from the prior session's $94 low. IDF strikes continued in Lebanon, drones hit Kuwait, and Iran's parliament speaker warned time is running out. The easy money from the ceasefire headline was made Wednesday. Thursday's data reinforced the softening picture. GDP revised down to 0.5% from 0.7%. Personal income dropped 0.1% against expectations of +0.3%. Jobless claims ticked up to 219K. Core PCE held at 3.0% YoY, offering the Fed zero relief on inflation. Tomorrow's CPI estimates set a high bar: Core YoY at 2.7% versus 2.5% prior, headline at 3.4% versus 2.4%, and MoM at 0.9% versus 0.3%. On the 4H chart, the bullish break of structure at 6,848 is confirmed and price extended to the 2.0 Fibonacci level. Oscillators sit at 84.80. SPX reclaimed the 50-Day MA at 6,757 and landed right on the 100-Day at 6,802. Gamma is positive at $758M notional, and price trades above both the volatility conditions boundary (ES 6,741) and the dealer hedging flip level (ES 6,733). The environment dampens moves and supports dips at current prices. Stability at 30% leaves room for a sizable move. But below the surface, a negative gamma state to the downside means any sustained break lower gets amplified, not absorbed. A 99th percentile market-maker strike concentration at 6,740 SPX marks the last structural defense before selling accelerates. News & Sentiment: CPI is the dominant catalyst. BLK reports at 6:00 pre-market. Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 (est 51.5 vs 53.3, deteriorating confidence). Bank earnings start Monday with GS, then JPM/WFC/C on Tuesday. US-Iran negotiations run all day Friday. Russian special envoy Dmitriev is in DC ahead of the April 11 sanctions relief expiry. Trump-Xi follow-up discussions continue with Greer meeting Chinese officials. Thursday's MOC imbalance printed +$555M S&P and +$845M Nasdaq. Forecast: - Overnight: Flat to muted. Traders waiting for CPI. Range likely 6,840-6,870. - Morning Session: Quiet until 8:30 ET. BLK earnings unlikely to move the index. - CPI Reaction (8:30 ET): Expect 30-50 point move. The elevated estimates set a high bar for a dovish surprise. - Afternoon: CPI sets the direction. Hot means sustained selling. Cool means squeeze higher. - Daily Close: Hot CPI scenario 6,780-6,810. Cool CPI scenario 6,870-6,920. - Expected Range: 6,770 to 6,920 - Most Likely Path: Pre-market quiet, CPI spike at 8:30, 15-30 min of volatility, then directional trend. The bearish institutional positioning under the surface suggests the path of least resistance is lower on a hot print, but a soft number could trigger a violent short squeeze given how hedged everyone is. Friday Events: - 06:00 ET: BLK earnings (EPS $12.36, Rev $6.6B) - 08:30 ET: CPI YoY (est 3.4%), Core CPI YoY (est 2.7%), CPI MoM (est 0.9%), Core CPI MoM (est 0.3%) - 10:00 ET: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim (est 51.5) - 10:00 ET: Factory Orders MoM (est -0.2%) - All Day: US-Iran Negotiations Resistance: - 6,876: Thursday's session high and top of the 0DTE gamma range - 6,892-6,898: Gamma combo zone (two high-confidence combo strikes concentrated here) - 6,941: Call Wall, major gamma ceiling where dealers sell into rallies - 6,956: Statistical resistance from computed pivot extension - 7,041: Absolute gamma strike, unlikely on CPI day but upper boundary Support: - 6,844-6,848: 4H break of structure level + gamma combo support, the critical hold for bulls - 6,820-6,825: Delta decay target zone and key intraday pivot from Thursday - 6,800-6,802: 100-Day MA zone (SPX 6,802), the line in the sand for this rally - 6,741: Volatility conditions boundary, below here moves amplify and selling accelerates - 6,733: Dealer hedging flip level, break below triggers cascade risk toward 6,700 How I'm seeing it: Tomorrow is all about the 8:30 CPI print. I'm keeping both setups ready and letting the data decide the direction. - Hot CPI (Core at or above 2.7%): Today's 0DTE-driven rally starts to unwind. Institutional hedges activate. The bearish options positioning under the surface takes the driver's seat. First target 6,820, then 6,800 if sellers stay aggressive. - Cool CPI (Core < 2.6%): This is the pain trade. Institutions are heavily short and hedged. A soft print forces put unwinds and dealer buying into a market already at highs. The squeeze toward 6,900-6,941 would be violent. - In-line CPI (Core 2.6-2.7%): Initial vol spike, then range-bound. 6,830-6,870 consolidation. - Key thing to watch: After the initial CPI move settles (15-30 min), watch real-time hedging flow. If it turns decisively negative on hot CPI, that confirms the short thesis. If it stays positive or flat on hot CPI, the sell-off may be contained. - Primary Setup: Short from 6,855-6,876, stop 6,895, T1 6,820, T2 6,773 (conditional on hot CPI + negative hedging flow after 8:45 ET) - Alternative: Long from 6,830-6,845, stop 6,810, T1 6,876, T2 6,920 (conditional on cool CPI + positive hedging flow) The last time positioning looked like this, the bounce lasted one session. Good Luck !!!
MESM Outlook:6750 still in play below, 6847 upside targetMESM analysis for Thursday, April 9 Price is still holding up after yesterday’s strong gap-up move into the 6800 area, but the setup from yesterday is still valid for today. On the 4H chart, the main upside liquidity I’m watching is yesterday’s high at 6847. On the downside, the first important level is 6781, which has already been tapped, while the bigger downside fair value gap target at 6750 still has not been reached. On the 1H chart, the fair value gap remains open, and for me that keeps the pullback setup active unless price clearly expands higher first. On the 15M chart, the first pullback level at 6781 has already been touched, so now 6750 becomes the main downside target if price continues to retrace. If buyers stay in control instead, then 6847 remains the liquidity target on the upside. Key levels 6781 = first fair value gap, already tapped 6750 = main downside target 6847 = yesterday’s high / upside liquidity As always, I’m waiting for confirmation before taking any setup. Not financial advice. No confirmation, no trade. CME_MINI:MESM2026
ES - April 9th - Daily Trade PlanApril 9th - Daily Trade Plan - 7:55am *Before reading this trade plan, if you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first! (You can view the posts in the related publication section) * If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also! My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective. ** NOTE - Contract Roll: ES is in the process of rolling over from the March 2026 (ESH2026) front month contract, to June (ESM2026) front month contract. You will see that the contract price has changed and past levels are now different. I will be using the June (ESM2026) contract levels moving forward until the September contract. *If you trade before I write out my daily trade plan. You can look at the prior days chart and 9/10 the levels already pre-planned out are still being respected. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Since the Iran ceasefire, we rallied in the overnight session yesterday and have been consolidating in a range between 6791-6847. This range should keep us moving higher. We have tested the bottom of the range 4x, and we need to clear 6830 to keep price moving higher. Between 6830-6791 is a choppy range that we can easily continue to build out this range today. If we lose 6791, we will need to look at levels below to be flushed and reclaimed to keep this move higher. Key Levels Today 1. 6804 - Flush & Reclaim 2. 6791 - Flush & Reclaim 3. 6757 - Flush & Reclaim 4. 6742 - Flush & Reclaim Below here and we will most likely be selling off pretty quickly and I would wait for a base to build at one of the following levels. 6717, 6700, 6686, 6666. If we lose 6791 and cannot reclaim it pretty quickly, we will most likely sell off pretty quickly. Be patient and wait for price to come down to a key level or wait for price to reclaim 6830 and look for a back test to enter. For the past 4 weeks price has rallied Sunday evening and then sold off to the weekly lows by Friday. If we lose 6791, there is a high probability that this will happen again this week. I will post an update around 10am EST. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purple = A Weekly Low (Current or Previous Week) Blue = Key Support/Resistance Levels Yellow = The previous day low (Includes the current weekly daily lows) Red - Overnight Session High/Low (Prior to my post)
If the S&P500 fails this line again - 6400 TargetThe Upper-Medianline-Parallel (U-MLH) of the red downsloping Pitchfork is the resistance, projected into the future. As long as price doesn't open & close outside, the projection is valid. So, in the S&P500 it's projected to the south. Trading with Pitchforks/Medianlines, one can follow the rulebook. Price should reach the next Medianline. In this case, the Centerline (CL). If price fails today to open & close above the U-MLH, then chances are roughly 80% that the Centerline will be reached. There are many ways to play this move. I prefere to use Options, because they give me a better way to control the risk. Using deep ITM LEAP Options, give me: - risk control - leverage - more room to be right (time AND space) Something to watch for is the 1/4 line. Price has a tendency to respect these lines. Either for support or resistance. Taking partial profit at these levels is always an "option" for me. If you like my work, please consider to follow and boost.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Thu (Apr 9)The market gapped up 174 points on ceasefire hopes, touched 6,847, then gave back 95 points when Iran's parliament speaker said there is no ceasefire. ES fought back to close at 6,817 (+2.41%), and the recovery was real: options flow that crashed to -$3B midday mean-reverted to flat by close. Dealers were buying dips in positive gamma territory, and implied vol got crushed 7-10 points. But the picture is more nuanced. Order flow showed -17,940 net selling on the session, breadth was negative on a +2.4% day, and gamma deepened to the most negative reading in days. After hours, futures edged lower on ceasefire concerns and oil bounced back above $97. The deal that powered the rally may not hold. The options data puts a ceiling on this: 30K dealer short calls at 6,800 SPX (about 6,840 ES) create grinding resistance. The implied move for Thursday tops out at 6,835 SPX, while the downside extends to 6,745. Asymmetric setup. Forecast: Overnight: Headline-driven. ES holding 6,807-6,823 range after hours. Morning Session: Triple data at 8:30 AM (Core PCE + GDP + Jobless Claims) into crushed vol. If data surprises, vol repricing drives the move. Afternoon: Soft data + ceasefire holds, grind toward 6,835-6,875. Hot data or ceasefire cracks, 6,746-6,700 fast. Daily Close: Wider range day. Gamma at -0.843 amplifies moves in either direction. Expected Range: 6,745 to 6,875 (options-derived implied move) Most Likely Path: Fade at 6,830-6,847 resistance. If flow turns positive and holds, don't fight it. Thursday Events: 8:30 AM: Core PCE Price Index (Fed's preferred inflation gauge) 8:30 AM: GDP Advance (Q1 growth estimate) 8:30 AM: Initial Jobless Claims (weekly labor market pulse) All Day: Iran/Hormuz developments (ceasefire status, military posture) Earnings: STZ before open, LEVI after close Resistance: 6847 - Session High / Fib 2.0 Extension 6835-6840 - Implied Move High / Dealer Short Call Ceiling 6820-6823 - After-Hours High / Intraday Equilibrium 6875 - Extended Target / Round Level Support: 6807 - After-Hours Low / Immediate Support 6795 - Fib 1.618 Extension / Intraday Shelf 6785 - Implied Move Low Zone 6746 - Fib 1.272 / Morning Bounce Level 6700 - Call Wall / Pivot / Major Support How I'm seeing it: Leaning bearish below 6,840, but this is a nuanced fade at resistance, not a trend reversal. 30K dealer short calls at 6,800 SPX create a ceiling. The implied move caps upside at 6,835. Asymmetric risk to the downside. Options flow mean-reverted by close (not sustained selling), but the midday -$3B extreme shows institutions will sell on any negative catalyst. Breadth was negative, order flow showed net selling. If price tests 6,835-6,847 and rejects, targeting 6,795 then 6,746. Gamma amplifies the move. Institutional trade: "sell index vol, buy single stock vol" into April OPEX. This means grind, not crash. Respect the range. Invalidation: Clean break above 6,865 with positive options flow. Primary Setup: Short from 6,830-6,847, stop 6,865, targeting 6,795 (Fib 1.618 pullback at dealer short call resistance) Triple data release day at the dealer short call ceiling, with gamma at its most negative in days and a ceasefire narrative that may be unraveling. The implied move says 6,745 to 6,835. That is the battlefield. Good Luck !!!
ES Supply Demand Swing ShortSee chart for analysis: 32k Positive Delta. A lot of buying since yesterday's close. Over the last 1 hour, it's gone from +23K to +32K. With the price where it is and what I see on the Delta... I do not think I'm long on this market and think the play is in shorts. This ceasefire IMO will not hold and has already been broken within the 1st 2 hours between Israel and Iran. I could be wrong, but will it hold? I have no trust in any of these 3 countries.
Whats in store for 2026?Predicting that, the stock market will move in any direction other than upwards has historically proven to be a fool's errand. Typically, it's advisable to maintain a long position of America and its robust capital markets until the signs of a recession truly start to emerge. However, last year's forecast of "7k plus" did indeed come to fruition, albeit by the narrowest of margins (just 11 points on the futures). Now, let’s consider a potential scenario for 2026, shall we? Following a stagnant fourth quarter and a lackluster conclusion to the last few trading days of 2025, I suspect that the initial half pf the year may be weaker than the prevailing consensus suggests. Will we experience a technical bear market with a -20% decline? Or will policymakers intervene at -19%, as they have done so many times in the past? :) Regardless of how deep the pullback may be or how quickly the potential softness at the start of the year could occur... It might actually present another fantastic buying opportunity that paves the way for a strong finish to the roaring twenties, with the SPX trading well above 10,000. (indeed my SPX chart points towards 17,000 by 2032) Could the bottom align with a possible four-year cycle low for BTC? That would be quite synchronistic and feasible, especially since crypto has become so intertwined with DJT's policies and serves as a performance metric that this administration is judged on whether praised or criticised for. Have conviction but remain nimble would be my overriding message.
ES Premarket UpdateWell, there's your TACO, lol. Not surprising that Trump chickened out, but I didn't expect Iran to, otherwise I would have gone long yesterday before close. Everything is overbought on the 3 hr chart (ES, NQ, gold, shitcoin), but I suspect we get a melt up because that's what happened with all of the other TACO events. Not sure how I'm going to trade this but, probably sitting out until the end of the day or tomorrow since I don't expect much movement today. I doubt Iran agrees to a permanent peace plan since the 2 sides are so far apart, but I think we go back to the understanding that they get bombed if they close the Strait of Hormuz. Kicking myself for not going long on bonds or F(ord). Oh well.
MESM Intraday Outlook: Gap-up rally, 6750 buy zone, 6900 targetMESM analysis for Wednesday, April 8 MESM opened with a strong gap up, and price is now trading around 6827. My bias for today is still on the buy side, but I expect there may be a pullback first before any further continuation higher. On the 4H chart, the main upside liquidity I’m watching is 6900. On the downside, the key pullback zone is 6750, which looks like an important reaction area if price retraces. On the 1H chart, there is a large fair value gap inside the green highlighted zone, and that lines up closely with the same 6750 cluster area from the 4H chart. That makes it a strong zone to watch for a possible reaction. On the 15M chart, the gap-up structure leaves stacked fair value gaps, with the first level around 6781 and the second major level around 6750. So for today, my main plan is: 6781 = first pullback level 6750 = main cluster / buy zone 6900 = upside liquidity target If price retraces into 6781 or 6750 and buyers step in with confirmation, I’ll be watching for continuation higher. The broader move appears tied to a global relief rally after reports of a temporary U.S.–Iran ceasefire, though that truce has also been described as fragile. Not financial advice. No confirmation, no trade. CME_MINI:MESM2026
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Wed (Apr 8)What a session. ES dropped 95 points to the lows on Iran escalation fears, Trump posted "a whole civilization will die tonight," Israel bombed railroads, Iran deployed human shields around power plants, and then Pakistan's PM stepped in at 3:15 PM asking for a two-week ceasefire. The market ripped 85 points in 45 minutes. Then at 6:32 PM, Trump agreed to suspend bombing for two weeks. But it didn't stop there: Iran confirmed it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks, the US officially stopped strikes (confirmed by major outlets), and the ceasefire expanded to include Lebanon and allied groups. Formal negotiations are set for Islamabad on Friday. ES hit 6,818 in after-hours, oil crashed 14.7% to 96.32, and here we are. The real-time hedging flow swung 3.3 billion dollars in 45 minutes during that reversal, from deeply negative to +2.5 billion at the close. Institutions repositioned aggressively. The institutional put overhang is massive (index ETFs sitting at near-record bearish percentiles), and those positions are getting destroyed on this move. The mechanical unwind of that put exposure creates strong buying pressure into Wednesday, especially with ES already above the 50-DMA. There's still risk in the details though. Iran's 10-point proposal includes lifting all sanctions, acceptance of enrichment, full compensation, and withdrawal of US combat forces from regional bases. Iran's own statement: "talks with US do not mean end of war." The IRGC lower ranks haven't fully received ceasefire orders yet, with Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar all reporting ongoing missile activity and issuing public warnings hours after the announcement. The White House acknowledged it will take time for orders to reach lower IRGC ranks. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson spoke after the close with a cautious tone: inflation remains above target, upside risks from trade policy and geopolitical tensions, and persistently elevated energy prices weighing on spending. Interesting context given oil just crashed 14.7%, which actually reduces the very inflation pressure he was flagging. News & Sentiment Analysis: The ceasefire is the dominant driver and it's holding better than initially expected. Iran's FM Araghchi confirmed safe Hormuz passage for two weeks. The US officially stopped military strikes. The ceasefire expanded beyond Iran to Lebanon and elsewhere. Pakistan's PM invited delegations to Islamabad for Friday April 10 to negotiate a conclusive agreement. Iraq welcomed the ceasefire and urged full commitment. These are all constructive developments that the market is pricing. The risk is in the endgame. Iran's demands for the final deal are enormous: all sanctions lifted, full compensation for damages, release of frozen assets, acceptance of their enrichment program, and US withdrawal from regional military bases. Iran's Supreme Security Council added: "our fingers are on the trigger, and as soon as the enemy makes the slightest mistake, it will be answered with full force." The market is pricing a successful ceasefire but NOT pricing the likelihood that final deal negotiations collapse on sanctions and enrichment. Oil crashed from 112 to 96.32 (-14.7%) as the war premium evaporated almost entirely. This is the biggest single-day crude decline in years. Bullish for inflation expectations, devastating for energy stocks (XLE put activity was heavy during the session). Gold surged to 4,863 (+3.82%), holding elevated despite the ceasefire, which tells you residual uncertainty remains. NQ pushed above 25,000 (+2.84%), DXY broke below 99. On the data front, US Consumer Credit came in at 9.48B vs 10.25B expected, a slight miss. API Crude showed a smaller-than-expected 3.72M build. EIA Crude tomorrow at 10:30 AM will be important for confirming the oil direction after this crash. The gamma levels are key: the zero gamma flip point sits at 6,662 ES, the volatility trigger at 6,639, and the call wall at 6,739. ES is currently above ALL of them at 6,798, meaning dealer hedging is firmly dampening moves. The next significant gamma level above is at 7,039, meaning thin gamma resistance overhead. ES is now between the 1.618 fib extension (6,794.75) and the 2.0 fib extension (6,848.50) on the 4H chart. The stability reading hit 3% during the selloff (most unstable in weeks), confirming negative gamma amplified both the down and up moves. Market internals at the RTH close were mixed: breadth was negative (more stocks down than up), volume was selling-dominated, yet the index recovered. The rally was driven by index-level options repositioning, not broad-based buying. That's typical of a headline-driven squeeze, but the size of the put overhang suggests this unwind has more room to run. Technical indicators composite reads 40% Sell overall with weakening direction. The 50-DMA at approximately 6,804 ES has already been breached in after-hours (high 6,818.75). The 100-DMA sits at approximately 6,842 ES and becomes the next meaningful overhead target. The 9-Day Stochastic is at 99.53%, extremely overbought short-term, while the 14-Day RSI at 48.68 still has room to run higher. Forecast: * Overnight: Bullish. ES consolidates in the 6,780-6,820 range. Iran confirmed Hormuz reopening, US stopped strikes. Watch for IRGC ceasefire violations overnight. * Morning Session: Open near 6,790-6,820. Put-unwind mechanics continue pushing higher. Hegseth press conference at 8 AM ET could add fuel. Targeting 6,840-6,850 (2.0 fib extension and 100-DMA zone). * Afternoon: Consolidation into FOMC Minutes at 2:00 PM. Expect pre-release positioning reduction. Risk is asymmetric, hawkish surprises hurt more than dovish ones help. Oil crash reduces inflation concerns though. * Daily Close: Positive. Neutral-to-dovish Minutes keeps ES 6,800-6,840. Hawkish tone fades to 6,760-6,790. * Expected Range: ES 6,740 to 6,870 * Most Likely Path: Open near 6,800, morning continuation to 6,840-6,850 on mechanical put unwind, consolidation into 2 PM FOMC, reaction to Minutes, close in the 6,790-6,840 range. The massive put overhang at record bearish percentiles creates a strong support base. The 100-DMA at 6,842 ES is the next overhead target now that the 50-DMA has been cleared. Wednesday Events: * 08:00: US Secretary of War Hegseth press conference, could address ceasefire status * 10:30: EIA Crude Oil Inventories (exp 2M build, prior 5.451M), key for oil direction after 14.7% crash * 14:00: FOMC Minutes, the scheduled risk event for Wednesday * Watch: Iran ceasefire compliance, IRGC activity, Strait of Hormuz shipping, North Korea (launched projectile) * Friday April 10: First round of US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad * April 10 pre-market: BLK ($12.36 EPS exp, $6.63B Rev) Resistance: * 6848-6850 , 2.0 fib extension on the 4H chart. Next structural target above the 50-DMA. Natural extension target if the gap sustains momentum. * 6840-6845 , 100-DMA zone (SPX 6,802 / approx 6,842 ES). Major overhead resistance. Reclaiming this flips the longer-term MA picture. * 6800-6818 , 50-DMA zone and Tuesday after-hours high (6,818.75). Already breached overnight. Now a battle zone, holds as support means continuation. * 6760-6770 , 1.618 fib extension. Already surpassed. Now acts as pullback support on any intraday retracement. * 6738-6741 , Call Wall (6,700 SPX / 6,739 ES). Breached and now deep support. Dealers deeply underwater on calls above this. Support: * 6780-6800 , New immediate support zone (50-DMA area). Mechanical put-unwind buying should defend this level. Any dip here is a potential entry. * 6760-6770 , 1.618 fib extension, now support. Strong structural level. * 6738-6741 , Call Wall, now deep support. A pullback here tests the gap-up thesis. * 6700-6710 , Round number and Equilibrium zone. A drop to here would signal the gap is failing. * 6660-6665 , Zero Gamma (6,662 ES) and PDH (6,667). Critical inflection. Only reachable on a ceasefire violation headline. How I'm seeing it: * Bullish above 6,780 ES. The ceasefire is holding better than expected: Hormuz reopening confirmed, US strikes stopped, ceasefire expanded to Lebanon, formal negotiations set for Friday. The put overhang at record bearish percentiles is creating massive mechanical buying pressure. * ES already breached the 50-DMA in after-hours (hit 6,818.75). If the gap holds above 6,800, next target is 6,840-6,850 (2.0 fib and 100-DMA zone). The 4H oscillators are recovering from oversold with room to run. * If ES fades below 6,780, the 1.618 fib at 6,760-6,770 is first support. Below 6,740 (Call Wall) means the gap is failing. * FOMC Minutes at 2:00 PM is the key unknown. Jefferson's hawkish tone could preview the Minutes, but oil crashing 14.7% actually reduces the inflation pressure he flagged. * 9-Day Stochastic at 99.53% is extremely overbought, but gap-and-go scenarios from binary event resolution can stay overbought for 2-3 sessions. Best entry on a morning dip to 6,780-6,800, not chasing above 6,820. * Iran's demands for the final deal are massive (all sanctions, enrichment, base withdrawal). The market is pricing ceasefire, not deal. This creates binary risk in 2 weeks. For now, the mechanical unwind dominates. * Primary Setup: Long from 6,780-6,800 (pullback to 50-DMA zone), stop 6,740 (below Call Wall), targeting 6,850 (2.0 fib extension / 100-DMA zone) The strongest relief rally of 2026 just played out. ES went from 6,572 to 6,818 in five hours. Oil crashed 14.7% to 96. The ceasefire expanded to Lebanon and Iran confirmed Hormuz reopening. The put overhang drives Wednesday's action. The 100-DMA at 6,842 is the next line in the sand. Good Luck !!!
Appetite For Risk Returns, USD/JPY Falls on Ceasefire HeadlinesPresident Trump has agreed to "suspend bombing" on Iran for two weeks, and Iran have accepted cease-fire proposal via Pakistan. The fact that Iran usually push back on any positive headlines is a huge development, and that has seen a Wall Street futures gap higher and the US dollar turn lower. I update my outlook for USD/JPY. MS
ES Supply Demand Short TradeTechnicals: - Price pulled back into 15/30minute supply + inside elvels of daily supply. - Many other trading strats looking at trading this area so a lot of funny business/fakebreakouts can occur. Fundamentals/Sentiment: - Main concerns supporting this bearish direction are stagflation (higher inflation slower economy), AI disruptions, FED hawkish stance on interest rates, and Geopolitical risk with Middle East. Recent monthly data that came out last week was overall pretty good but how will the FED react is the real question and Trump Iran deadline ending in 12 hours Of course, with a larger reward:risk trade, I go into them expecting to lose more than win.