A pattern stretching back to bitcoin's earliest days has held through every market cycle. It has yet to be tested in the current one.

• Every bitcoin bear market has retraced more than 61.8% of the move from near zero in early 2010 to the latest bull market peak.
• With bitcoin’s latest peak above $126,000, that 61.8% retracement now sits around $48,215, implying prices could fall sharply from current levels near $64,000 if the historical pattern holds.

The pattern works like this. Draw Fibonacci retracements from near zero – BTC began trading at $0.003 in February 2010 – to bull market peaks reached in June 2011, November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021.

The bear markets that followed these peaks saw prices crash well below the 61.8% retracement of the entire move from near zero to the bull peaks. This has happened every time, as seen in the charts below.

Four peaks, four subsequent bear markets and four breaks below the 61.8% level. No exceptions.

Now comes the current cycle. Bitcoin peaked above $126,000 earlier this year. The 61.8% retracement from near zero in early 2010 to that peak sits at $48,215. Bitcoin is trading around $64,000 today, still well above that level.

The pattern hasn't triggered. But if it does, a crash to at least $48,215 is where the charts point.

That said, here is one caveat: Historical patterns, even those linked to Fibonacci levels, are not guarantees. Four cycles are still a small sample size, and the bitcoin market today, dominated by ETFs, institutions, and sophisticated derivative plays, is far more mature than it was during previous bull markets. The resulting market sophistication may provide an early floor.

But the pattern has worked historically, although bitcoin has a long way to fall before it breaks it.

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