ING’s Chris Turner says Sterling is trading relatively well as markets fully price a 25bp Bank of England (BoE) rate hike to 4.00% on Thursday. He cites high energy prices, better United Kingdom (UK) data, supportive fiscal policy and improved European Union (EU) relations as positives, while noting large speculative short positions and expecting EUR/GBP consolidation rather than a significant low in the cross.

Sterling buoyed by fully priced BoE move

"Sterling is trading reasonably well. Helping it has been the view that high energy prices leave the Bank of England no alternative but to hike rates on Thursday."

"A 25bp rate hike to 4.00% looks like a done deal."

"Upside economic surprises, UK fiscal policy seemingly heading in the right direction and warmer ties with the EU all seem to be helping sterling too."

"Notably, speculators are still running reasonably large short positions in sterling, which suggests this period of sterling outperformance can continue."

"EUR/GBP has come a long way very quickly – a near 4% drop in a little over a month. Some consolidation is probably due. But with high energy prices likely to keep expectations of higher UK policy rates in place until early next year and French budgetary problems unresolved, it is too early to expect a significant low in EUR/GBP."

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