A heavy data calendar could decide whether the Fed hikes again in October, with markets pricing a 64% chance of a 25 basis point increase. The week opens Tuesday with August JOLTS job openings and September consumer confidence, followed Wednesday by core PCE inflation and Q2 GDP, Thursday’s ISM manufacturing PMI, and Friday’s September jobs report. The Bank of Japan’s policy minutes land Monday and could shape global bond markets if they hint at further hikes. Hotter readings could push October hike odds higher, while softer numbers would ease pressure. More than 20 Fed speakers, including Chair Kevin Warsh, are also scheduled, alongside earnings from Micron and Nike, testing whether the economy can absorb higher rates without slowing.

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