Standard Chartered argues that Europe’s political balance could shift to the right in 2027, with key elections in France, Spain, Italy and Poland. The bank highlights France’s presidential race as most critical, warning an RN victory would be market negative. It also notes potential conservative and populist-right gains could reshape EU institutions and constrain climate, migration and trade policy.

EU institutions face rightward pressure

"Next year has the potential to deliver a material shift rightwards in the EU’s political centre of gravity."

"Given its political and economic weight in Europe, the stakes are highest in France where presidential elections (April 2027) could deliver a victory for the far-right Rassemblement National (RN)."

"The most visible impact of a pivot to the right would be in the European Council, where a culture of consensus-building would create room for far-right leaders to shape negotiations and threaten to use national vetoes on areas requiring unanimity."

"In the Parliament, this could increase pressure on the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) to work more closely with far-right groups, while at the Commission level, a more right-wing Council could limit what President von der Leyen views as politically achievable."

"Right-wing and far-right governments will not necessarily agree on what to implement or change from a policy perspective, so their impact may be more acutely felt in terms of their capacity to block or dilute the pre-existing EU agenda, creating political paralysis in certain areas."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

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