- Gold remains depressed near a one-week low, touched earlier this Thursday.
- Fed rate hike bets and elevated US bond yields continue to underpin the USD.
- Geopolitical risks further benefit the buck and cap the upside for the bullion.
Gold (XAU/USD) remains depressed below the $4,300 mark, trading near a one-week low set earlier this Thursday as traders await a crucial meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Expectations for a major announcement are low, though market players will look for any progress on rare earths, technology restrictions, and an extension of the current US-China truce. Nevertheless, the incoming headlines could infuse volatility and provide some impetus to the precious metal.
Any intraday move up, however, is likely to remain capped amid rising US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, which tend to undermine the non-yielding Gold. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a nearly 70% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again in October. The expectations were lifted by a private survey, which showed that US business activity accelerated for a fourth straight month in September. In fact, the S&P Global flash Composite PMI Output Index rose from 56.0 in August to 58.4, the highest level since July 2021.
Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Iran took center stage at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) after Trump stated that Iran faces a choice of diplomacy or total destruction. In response, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Iran will never bend the knee, but is ready for a diplomatic solution. Pezeshkian also insisted that any deal would have to include an end to the US blockade, targeting Iranian ports and maritime shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. This led to a 3% rally in crude oil prices, reigniting inflation fears and underpinning prospects for further Fed tightening.
The growing acceptance that the US central bank will stick to its hawkish stance pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond to its highest level since July 2007 and lifted the US Dollar (USD) to a nearly two-month high on Wednesday. This, in turn, backs the case for a further near-term depreciating move for gold, though the subdued price action warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders. Hence, weakness below the monthly swing low, around the $4,235 area, touched last Wednesday, is needed to reaffirm the negative outlook and pave the way for deeper losses.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis
The XAU/USD pair maintains a capped tone below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50% retracement level. Meanwhile, a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading and a mid-range Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44.6 hint that bullish momentum has faded. Hence, any attempted recovery move is likely to be sold into while the Gold price remains under the clustered resistance.
On the downside, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,227 offers nearby structural support, ahead of the 78.6% level at $4,101 and the prior swing floor at $3,940. On the topside, immediate resistance aligns at the 50% retracement at $4,316, followed by the 100-day EMA at $4,359 and the 38.2% retracement at $4,405. A sustained break above this cluster would be needed to ease the bearish bias and open the way toward $4,515 and $4,693.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Interest rates FAQs
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.