U.S. non‑farm payrolls posted a 165,000 increase in October, far outpacing expectations and giving the greenback a fresh boost in the early New York session. The surprise strength reinforced the dollar’s recent rally, tightening liquidity across major FX pairs and prompting noticeable gaps at the open of several cross‑currency charts.
Dollar strength widens gaps in sterling crosses
Traders observed a pronounced opening gap in GBP/USD as the dollar surged on the payroll data. The gap reflected a sudden shift in order flow, with dollar‑denominated buying overwhelming supply on the sterling side. Similar pressure rippled through GBP/EUR, where the euro‑dollar dynamics also felt the strain of a tighter dollar market. Market makers noted thinner depth in the sterling market, a condition that can amplify price swings when the U.S. session transitions into the European afternoon.
Kiwi rally and Aussie‑NZ slide shape the Pacific FX picture
In the Asia‑Pacific arena, the New Zealand dollar jumped to 0.5600 against the U.S. dollar after preliminary election results gave the coalition a narrow lead. The move lifted NZD/USD above 0.5550 and kept the pair near session highs, underscoring how political outcomes can inject fresh liquidity into the market. At the same time, the AUD/NZD pair slipped below the 1.2300 mark, edging toward a two‑month low of 1.2265 after a roughly 0.7% decline, marking three‑week lows for the pair.
Elsewhere, the Indonesian rupiah benefited from easing oil prices after comments on Middle‑East tensions, nudging USD/IDR lower. Despite the oil‑driven softness, the dollar’s downside remained capped by the robust payrolls and a still‑high probability—above 78%—of a December Fed rate hike.
Equity markets are also feeling the ripple effect. Higher dollar valuations tend to pressure commodity‑linked stocks, while the liquidity squeeze in FX can spill over into risk‑off sentiment across broader U.S. equities. Traders should monitor the evolving gaps in sterling crosses and the continued volatility in Pacific pairs as the session progresses, especially if further U.S. data or geopolitical cues emerge.